🪴The Dunning-Kruger Effect
how overconfidence breaks founders..
The Dunning-Kruger effect might just be the most dangerous bias for founders. It’s the classic case of “you don’t know what you don’t know”.
People with little expertise often think they know more than they actually do, while true experts (fully aware of their gaps) tend to underestimate their competence. If you learn to recognise it, you can turn it into a competitive advantage.
🚨 Why it matters
As a founder, you are all over the place. Product development, hiring, fundraising, and more. Inevitably, you’ll have to make decisions in areas where you’re not an expert.
The Dunning-Kruger effect kicks in when your limited knowledge gives you a false sense of confidence, leading to decisions that may feel right but are completely off base.
Think of technical founders venturing into sales, or non-technical founders building AI products. Overconfidence in these areas can result in hiring the wrong team, launching half-baked features, or failing to identify critical weaknesses in your strategy.
On the other side of the spectrum you have the domain experts who are aware of the complexity and may hesitate to take the bold moves altogether. What do they know, after all?
👀 How to spot it
Are you dismissing expert advice?
If you’ve ever thought,"I know better” after a seasoned expert challenges your decision, pause and reflect.... Overconfidence is big no-no.
Does success feel too easy?
If early wins make you think you’ve cracked the code, turn the emergency lights on. There’s a slight chance you really found a cheatcode, however in most cases the results might be caused by luck. Startup success is not attributed to one small battle win, but to a series of wins in wars.
Are you overloading your confidence in one domain?
Just because you’ve mastered coding doesn’t mean you’ll intuitively understand product-market fit. Skills don’t always translate across disciplines.
Ignoring your blind spots can lead to devastating consequences:
Flawed Products: Overconfidently releasing features users didn’t ask for.
Wasted Resources: Spending months chasing dead-end ideas because you “just know” they’ll work.
Poor Hiring Choices: Overvaluing your gut instead of vetting candidates rigorously.
✨ Overcoming this effect
Assume you’re wrong
Before making major decisions, ask: “What if I’m completely wrong?”. Even if you are certain you are in the right, try to look for research behind your reasoning. I recommend applying this both in professional and personal lives.
Surround yourself with experts
Try to hire people who are smarter than you in their respective fields. We all dislike outsourcing, thinking we do better. In the end startup is our baby after all. The sooner you learn to overcome this fear, the better for us. Bonus tip: Build a culture where dissenting opinions are welcomed and explored.
Stay curious, always
Confidence without curiosity is dangerous. Just keep learning every day. If anything interests you, spend your time understanding the thing. The more you learn, the more you’ll realise how much there is to know.
Test, don’t guess
Replace gut feelings with experiments. A/B test everything from the new feature to the pyjamas you sleep the best in.
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