🪴The Dunning-Kruger effect

how overconfidence breaks founders..

The Dunning-Kruger effect might just be the most dangerous bias for founders. It’s the classic case of “you don’t know what you don’t know”.

People with little expertise often think they know more than they actually do, while true experts (fully aware of their gaps) tend to underestimate their competence. If you learn to recognise it, you can turn it into a competitive advantage.

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🚨 Why it matters

As a founder, you are all over the place. Product development, hiring, fundraising, and more. Inevitably, you’ll have to make decisions in areas where you’re not an expert.

The Dunning-Kruger effect kicks in when your limited knowledge gives you a false sense of confidence, leading to decisions that may feel right but are completely off base.

Think of technical founders venturing into sales, or non-technical founders building AI products. Overconfidence in these areas can result in hiring the wrong team, launching half-baked features, or failing to identify critical weaknesses in your strategy.

On the other side of the spectrum you have the domain experts who are aware of the complexity and may hesitate to take the bold moves altogether. What do they know, after all?

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👀 How to spot it

Are you dismissing expert advice?
If you’ve ever thought,"I know better” after a seasoned expert challenges your decision, pause and reflect.... Overconfidence is big no-no.

Does success feel too easy?